The countdown is underway for NASA’s first crewed mission of its Artemis program, with meteorologists giving Wednesday’s launch attempt an 80% chance of favorable weather.
According to the latest guidance from United States Space Force, forecasters will be playing close attention to clouds and gusty winds, but the majority of potentially hazardous weather will be well south of the Cape, located along a weakening frontal boundary.
Forecasters with the 45th Weather Squadron, based at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, are tasked with forecasting weather for rocket launches from the Space Coast and making sure observations fall within strict guidelines.
Possible weather restraints begin days before the launch to ensure the integrity of the vehicle and the safety of the crew members.
Teams will not move a rocket if there is greater than a 10% chance of lightning within 20 nautical miles of the launch area.
Rollout operations are also prohibited if there is more than a 5% chance of hail, which can damage the rocket's exterior, or if sustained winds are expected to be around at least 40 knots.
Crews will halt rollout procedures if the air temperature falls below 40 degrees Fahrenheit or climbs above 95 degrees at the space center.
Once the rocket successfully reaches the launch pad, an additional set of weather constraints governs fueling operations and the launch itself.
Ground crews cannot begin fueling the rocket if sustained winds exceed 37 knots.
Additionally, NASA will not proceed with tanking if air temperatures are too cool or if there is a threat of lightning in the immediate area.
Once fueled, a launch is not permitted if lightning is observed within 10 nautical miles of the scheduled flight path.
Even if the clouds aren't producing precipitation, they can still cause problems on the ground.
A launch is not allowed to take place if the rocket would pass near or through a thick cloud layer, which includes cumulus clouds responsible for thunderstorms.
NASA also monitors solar weather, as activity in space can interfere with communications or damage electronic devices.
Despite the long list of constraints, space experts say the guidelines are essential to ensuring a safe and successful mission.
The Artemis II mission will carry a crew of four astronauts on a 10-day mission around the moon, marking the first time humans will travel beyond low-Earth orbit since the Apollo era.
NASA says a successful crewed Artemis mission will pave the way for astronauts to land on the lunar surface during future missions and eventually Mars during the 2030s.
