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El Niño keeps Atlantic hurricane activity unusually quiet

Satellite photo of the Atlantic basin on August 16, 2026.
Satellite photo of the Atlantic basin on August 16, 2026.

The Atlantic basin has once again become a tropical graveyard, with dry air and atmospheric stability stifling any type of tropical development.

The quiet pattern comes after multiple tropical waves and Tropical Storm Cristobal were tracked across the Atlantic, but none were ever a threat to land.

Despite the calendar showing that the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is just weeks away, the overall atmosphere remains hostile for any type of tropical development.

Accumulated cyclone energy, or what is commonly referred to as ACE, is running around 80% below normal for this point in the season.

ACE is a metric that measures the total energy produced by tropical cyclones over their lifespans by accounting for both intensity and duration. Long-lived hurricanes produce far more ACE than weaker storms that quickly dissipate.

The lack of seasonal activity has been particularly noticeable because the basin has produced only a few short-lived tropical storms and no hurricanes.

The longest-lasting named storm so far in 2026 was Tropical Storm Bertha, which was a named storm for only around 72 hours.

Bertha made landfall along the northern Gulf Coast after developing south of the Florida Panhandle.

In addition to the dry air, robust wind shear has helped to keep cyclone formation in check.

And forecast models show there are no signs of any major changes on the horizon, which is typical during a strong El Niño event.

Map showing enhanced levels of wind shear.
Map showing enhanced levels of wind shear.

El Niño is associated with warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, but often leads to greater vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, along with cooler water temperatures.

Hence the reason why there has been a parade of cyclones between Hawaii and Mexico, including Hurricane Lala in the central Pacific, which even threatened the Hawaiian Islands.

Lala came close to making landfall along the coastline of the nation's 50th state, which would have been the first event since Hurricane Iniki in 1992, but the Category 1 hurricane passed just south of the Big Island over the weekend.

Direct landfalls by hurricanes are extremely rare in Hawaii, but the island chain regularly experiences squally weather and increased surf from passing cyclones.

Satellite animation of Hurricane Lala passing by Hawaii.
Tropicaltidbits.com/NOAA
Satellite animation of Hurricane Lala passing by Hawaii.

So far this year, nine tropical storms have formed in the eastern and central Pacific, with three strengthening into hurricanes and one reaching major hurricane status, with winds of at least 115 mph.

By comparison, the Atlantic basin has produced just three tropical storms and no hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, leaving more than three months for additional activity to develop.

The next name on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season list is Dolly, but there are currently no signs that the storm will form anytime soon.

2026 naming list for tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic basin.
2026 naming list for tropical storms and hurricanes across the Atlantic basin.

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Andrew Wulfeck is a seasoned Digital Meteorologist and Content Producer with a robust background in broadcast news and digital strategy. Andrew's experience includes Fox Weather, CNN Newsource and First Coast News. Currently based in Jacksonville, Florida, he produces daily weather content across audio, video and digital platforms.