Melissa has gone through what is known as extreme rapid intensification. This is the most severe form of intensification a tropical cyclone can undergo, when it strengthens by 58 mph in 24 hours. Hurricane Melissa strengthened from a category 1 hurricane on Saturday night, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, to a catastrophic category 4 with 140 mph winds. It is still crawling west at 4 mph. This movement is expected to continue at least through Monday afternoon before it makes a sharp turn to the northeast and travels over Jamaica during the day on Tuesday.
Sunday morning's satellite image is impressive. Showing at times a well-defined eye that closes off as it seems to continue to intensify. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from its center, and hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center. Expect Melissa to fluctuate between categories four and five over the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Jamaica.
Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken somewhat as it traverses Jamaica's higher terrain, but it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in 60-72 hours.NHC 11 a.m. advisory
Melissa is likely to hammer Jamaica as a category four or even category five hurricane, then move over the eastern portion of Cuba as a major category four hurricane, likely category four on Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Once Melissa makes a sharp turn to the north-northeast, it will pick up gradual speed. Therefore, the silver lining in the story is that at least it will move faster than it has been moving over Jamaica and Cuba. Nonetheless, we are talking about at least a Category 4 hurricane that will bring devastating impacts to Jamaica and to the provinces of Guantánamo, the eastern portion of Holguín, and the eastern portion of Santiago de Cuba. Once Melissa exits Cuba, it will cross over the southern portion of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Melissa could bring 40 inches of rain to eastern Jamaica and violent winds
The central Caribbean has already received heavy rainfall, resulting in flash floods and landslides all this week. This includes the Eastern portion of Jamaica, which will now be impacted by a major Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Rainfall for Jamaica, especially across the eastern portion, could exceed 40 inches. Residents are urged to seek shelter now, as damage, winds, and heavy rainfall will continue through the rest of the weekend into Monday, and flash floods could be catastrophic. There will also be landslides before the violent winds arrive. A storm search will also be a problem along the southern coast from Monday night to Tuesday afternoon.
Haiti has also been experiencing extreme rainfall all week. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash floods will continue across the Española. Cuba, the southern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos need to prepare for significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall, which will increase starting Tuesday evening and continue at least through Wednesday night. There could be flash floods and landslides across the islands. Rainfall in Guantánamo could reach over 20 inches in parts of the southern Bahamas and Turkey, and in the Turks and Caicos, rainfall will range from 6 to 12 inches.
Notice the speed of Melissa and the speed of the fronts moving across the U.S. Melissa will drag at least until Monday afternoon before making a sharp northeast turn and speeding up!
— Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) (@FloridaStorms) October 26, 2025
Jamaica and Cuba are on high alert. pic.twitter.com/rve8AKWfmo
This storm does not pose a threat to the United States, as a high-pressure system will protect the East Coast following a cold front that will exit the East Coast on Tuesday.