State Democratic leaders in Florida are hoping for a reversal of fortune in this year’s midterm elections.
Yet, some in the state’s minority party say electoral realities and potential party factions could make any statewide path to victory challenging.
Florida Democrats are running from behind. Republicans hold every statewide office and hold supermajorities in both state legislative chambers. They also hold about a 1.5 million voter registration lead.
But during a press conference Monday, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried argued there is a path forward, pointing to recent local wins and the broader electoral climate.
“The Republican supermajority in this legislature is breakable, and we are going to break it this cycle,” she said. “Since 2024, Democrats have flipped more than 30 seats across our state. That is 18 months of steady wins in districts that look nothing alike.”
Fried, the last Democrat who has served in statewide office when she was elected Florida’s agriculture commissioner in 2018, says their plan isn’t reliant on just one statewide breakthrough. They plan on having a consistent message of affordability and helping statewide and local candidates work together.
“You break a supermajority through dozens of disciplined, well-run local campaigns, and that is exactly what we are doing. In 2026, we take this to scale. We build a coordinated campaign with our top-of-the-ticket candidates and run a ground game that lifts every Democrat on the ballot,” she said.
But it’s unclear if that plan will be enough to overcome statewide challenges.
Longtime Democratic consultant Steve Schale said he believes some state legislative race success is possible for the party. But he thinks the math makes the path to statewide victory more challenging, because Democrats need to keep a broad coalition of voters with differing views together.
“Three things have to happen. Democrats have to be relatively united. They have to turn out at a good at a good rate. You have to win independents now by 20, 25 points. That's actually not that insane this cycle, but like it's yeah, that's sort of the math. And you have to win more Republicans than they win of Democrats. If any one of those three things doesn't happen, you're not going to win,” he said.
The frontrunners in the Democratic primaries for Florida’s statewide races seem to be playing to those numbers. Democratic Gubernatorial candidate David Jolly is a former Republican Congressman turned No Party Affiliation registerer turned Democratic candidate.
And Democratic US Senate Candidate Alex Vindman has taken a more centrist position in his primary contest against progressive State Rep. Angie Nixon. Vindman has a massive financial lead in that contest and a host of Democratic endorsements.
The moderate-as-frontrunner in these Florida races come at a time when progressives in other states, like New York, are scoring wins. Schale says Florida’s Democratic moderate leads reflect the state’s makeup.
“The average the median Democratic primary voter in Brooklyn looks nothing like the median demographic median sort of Democratic primary voter in you know in Florida,” he said.
But KeyLime Strategy’s Jackson McMillian, a Democratic digital fundraiser, argues the party’s assumptions about voters may be wrong. McMillian say the progressive success in other states show many voters are rejecting candidates they see as overly cautious and business-aligned.
“You go on every Reddit thread and every Facebook comment section that's not in explicit Democratic insider circles, and you see that voters do not want even independent voters, even Republican voters. Do not want quote unquote safe corporate picks. They want people who are going to advocate for working class voters. They do not want someone they perceive as safe,” he said.
Younger candidates fueled by progressive politics have cropped up in other Florida races, namely Elijah Manley and Oliver Larkin who are running against Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Congressman Jared Moskowitz in South Florida.
McMillian thinks Florida Democratic voters motivated by progressive candidates are at risk of not showing up to vote in November should their preferred candidate lose, or if they don’t feel represented by candidates in other, top-of-ticket races.
“The reality is, is that voters do not choose one team or the other. They have one team that they like, and if that team isn't where they want them to be, they stay home. I call it football logic. Just because the Buccaneers aren't going to make it to the Super Bowl this season doesn't mean I put on a Patriots jersey. It just means I don't go out to the games,” he said.
But Schale thinks running to the left is a surefire way for Democrats to lose against Republicans. He pointed to the 2018 elections, arguing the math doesn’t work.
“Andrew Gillum, the most liberal person who's ever run for office in Florida, in the most Democratic year in my life, lost. If Andrew Gillum can't win in a way more Democratic state, in an arguably way more Democratic year in Florida then I mean, what do these people think the pathway to winning is?” he said.
And Evan Power, chair of the Republican Party of Florida, and himself a congressional candidate—is reveling in his party’s position.
“The question now is not whether Democrats can play in Florida; it's how quickly no party affiliates overtake the Democrat Party in the state of Florida,” he said.
