With the main storm track expected to remain well north of the Sunshine State over the next week, warmer and drier conditions will continue to dominate Florida’s forecast.
A broad ridge of high pressure is projected to stay in control through much of the pre-Thanksgiving period, helping to lock in temperatures above seasonal norms and limiting opportunities for meaningful rainfall.
Typically, afternoon highs in mid-November range from around 70 degrees across the Panhandle to the 80s in South Florida.
During the upcoming week, temperature anomalies will be most pronounced along the Interstate 10 corridor, where a late-fall heat wave will produce mild overnight lows and daytime highs that running 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Wednesday appears to be the warmest day of the stretch, with most communities expected to climb into at least the lower 80s statewide.
A few weak frontal boundaries are forecast to approach the region during the week, but none are expected to be powerful enough to produce widespread rain chances or usher in noticeably cooler air.
Some weather hazards will still exist despite the apparent tranquil conditions.
The combination of light winds and humid mornings will support the formation of fog around daybreak. Visibilities may drop quickly for morning commuters in the denser fog zones.
Additionally, the ongoing lack of rainfall will continue to lead to the expansion of drought conditions.
Nearly half the state is now officially classified in some stage of drought, with the threat of wildfires expected to increase.
Overall, the setup reflects a fairly classic La Niña pattern, which often leaves Florida warmer and drier than average as the main energy associated with storm systems passes the state to the north.
Look ahead to Thanksgiving Day week
Early indications suggest the week of Nov. 24 will begin much like the previous one ended - warm, quiet and with minimal chances for precipitation across Florida.
While other parts of the country could be dealing with turbulent weather, including severe thunderstorms, pockets of ice and snow, the Sunshine State appears poised to avoid any widespread impacts as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches.
Forecast models indicate that there could be a pattern shift just after the holiday, but for now, if your travels keep you in Florida, there look to be no major impacts.
Temperatures through most of the week are expected to run well above late-November averages, with some locations, especially along the I-10 corridor, within range of record highs.
The forecast will continue to be fine-tuned as we get closer to Nov. 27, especially with several storm systems moving across the central and eastern U.S.
