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Florida's water problem: the weather, Earth, Moon, and Sun are aligned to cause coastal flooding

Florida's surrounding waters are on the move! A low-pressure system over the Gulf and its stationary front stretching across Florida are churning the Gulf waters, making them hazardous for boaters and swimmers along the Gulf Coast. There are small craft advisories that will likely stay in place for the beginning of the week, even as the low-pressure pressure dissipates as it moves west. Another low-pressure system is expected to attempt development near the Bahamas, and a cold front moving from the north is anticipated for the second half of the week. This will increase the winds and is likely to keep advisories in effect, especially for the Gulf Coast.

King tides are particularly noticeable along the East Coast of the United States. Still, they are not particularly evident along the Gulf Coast due to the bathymetry or steepness of the sea floor, which has a shallow continental shelf.

King Tides: peak dates between October 5 and 12.

It's time for the famous King Tides, or known scientifically as the perigean spring tides. These are higher-than-normal tides that occur due to the combined gravitational forces of the Sun and Moon, which pull on the Earth's oceans, creating the highest tides of the year. King Tides are predictable and occur several times a year, most commonly between September and November.

Tidal flooding exacerbates the already rising sea level, which often mixes saltwater with sewage, flooding streets and damaging cars, while also posing health risks to those walking through contaminated areas. Please avoid walking through puddles or flooded roads, as an open wound could be the entry point for a severe infection.

On average, high tides will be approximately 1 foot higher than usual. For example, in Jacksonville Beach, the average high tide is around 5 feet. However, during the morning high tides between October 7th and 13th, which will occur between 8 a.m. and noon, the level will be between 6.3 and 6.6 feet—similar conditions, aside from different levels and varying times, along Florida's entire East Coast.

Sea level rise is also contributing to higher-than-normal tides. The mean sea level is typically higher in the summer due to changing weather patterns and increasing water temperatures.

Atlantic East Coast:

The Atlantic coast will be the most active. Not only will the winds churn the seas, making them hazardous for boaters and swimmers, but the winds coming from the east will also increase the risk of rip currents along the entire coast. Small craft advisories are up and are very likely to stay in effect for the first half of the week, with the potential to remain in place throughout he latter part of the week. Seas will decrease a bit between Thursday and Friday, but winds will remain strong from the east. This direct east wind is likely to exacerbate coastal flooding along Florida's East Coast. Coastal flooding, even if it doesn't rain will occur around high tide times, there is the chance for scattered afternoon storms which could make flooding worse in some coasta areas if they happen during high tide times.

North Gulf Coast of Florida:

The winds will continue to cause small craft advisories to be issued. Along the offshore waters adjacent to the Panhandle, the small craft advisory is in effect at least until 1 p.m. on Monday. However, keep in mind that although the seas will decrease slightly between Tuesday and Wednesday, the winds will remain at up to 20 knots throughout the week and increase to between 25 and 30 knots from Thursday onwards, with seas also growing to up to 6 feet at times.

Coastal Flood warnings are likely to stay in effect much of the week.

Florida's West Coast:

The winds will continue to be strong out of the east for much of the week. There are small craft advisories in effect at least until Tuesday morning for near-shore and offshore waters between Punta Gorda and Cider Key. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. Keep in mind that with the winds coming from the east, combined with the day's heating, storms will develop in the afternoon hours and be pushed toward the coast every afternoon, at least through Wednesday. Highs in the afternoons for the start of the week will remain around normal between the upper 80s and lower 90s.

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