Gabrielle has struggled to intensify to hurricane status this week. It was forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. However, by Sunday afternoon, Gabrielle had still not developed into a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, and was moving northwest at 12 mph.
Gabrielle is slowing down, and this slowdown will allow the storm to remain over a favorable area for intensification for a short period, approximately 24 hours between Sunday and Monday. During this period, Gabrielle could reach category 2 status, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, as indicated in the National Hurricane Center's forecast track issued on Sunday at 11 a.m. There is a chance that Gabrielle's intensification could be classified as rapid intensification.
The good news is that Gabrielle is expected to stay very far away from the Eastern Seaboard and even from Bermuda. The strongest winds will remain east of the center, which will allow the highest waves to stay east and not impact the East Coast of the U.S. Although accumulated energy could propagate some moderate waves to the Carolinas' coast as Gabrielle intensifies, slows, and turns north. The moderate wave action will also be due to a front leaving the East Coast, which will increase the winds near and offshore.
The next tropical disturbance, a bit more south
The next tropical disturbance is located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance has a low chance of developing within the next 7 days. It is moving west at 20 mph, and by Tuesday, heavy rains from this disturbance will impact the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico through Wednesday. It is likely to move just north of Hispaniola, and that is where it would have a low chance to develop into a tropical system, as it slows down. We will closely monitor this disturbance, as it has the potential to produce heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula during the last days of September or the first week of October.
Another tropical wave
There is another tropical disturbance with a medium chance of developing into a tropical system located over the Central Atlantic. Models indicate that this disturbance follows a track similar to that of Gabrielle. It is likely to stay at a safe distance from the Caribbean. In the long term, we need to monitor whether it could approach Bermuda or the Eastern Seaboard. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide you with updates. Remember that tropical waves located over the Central Atlantic, or near the Cabo Verde Islands, can take approximately 10 days to make their trajectory westward, approaching the United States. We have time to monitor.