Just as predicted, Erin has become a hurricane. It is officially the first hurricane of this 2025 hurricane season.
Erin is expected to continue intensifying over the weekend. It is moving over an area of very warm sea surface temperatures. The National Hurricane Center denotes that there’s a chance for Erin to intensify rapidly into a major category hurricane between Saturday and Sunday. This means that Erin could have maximum sustained wins of at least 111 mph by Sunday morning.
The hurricane is expected to remain well north of the Caribbean. The closest it will come to the Caribbean would be to the northern islands of the Lesser Antilles. Saint Martin, Anguilla, and Barbuda are under a tropical storm watch, which could be upgraded to a tropical storm warning later today.
As far as Puerto Rico, the system is expected to remain over 250 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. The eastern Caribbean islands, especially the northern-facing coast, will deal with rough marine conditions. Seas will be elevated and dangerous. Rip currents will also stay present throughout much of the weekend.
When will it turn north?
The north turn will start to happen late on Sunday or very early on Monday morning. At this point, it is expected that Erin will continue as a major category hurricane with maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph. By Tuesday morning, Erin will be parallel to the East Coast of Florida but staying over 600 miles to the east. Nonetheless, the power of the hurricane will turn the seas and bring high waves along the Florida East Coast through the eastern Seaboard. Southeast Florida will get some moderate wave action, but higher and more dangerous marine conditions will be mainly focused from the Space Coast northward thorugh the mid-Atlantic coast. The risk for high rip currents will be elevated throughout the middle of the week. We will bring you updates on exact wave heights and indirect impacts during the weekend and next week as the storm turns north.
On average, the first hurricane develops by September 1. This place is us about two weeks ahead of schedule. Keep in mind that this doesn’t mean that we will continue with many storms forming, but we are entering the busiest weeks of the season. Looking at long-term models, several waves are leaving Africa within the next few days that could develop. It is essential to keep in mind that tropical waves emerging from Africa could take over 10 days to reach the Americas, if they do.