The National Hurricane Center has updated its forecast for the hurricane season. Their forecast remains on track to have an above-average season, with the ranges slightly decreased.
The agency, in its August 7 update, shows a forecast for 13 to 18 named tropical systems, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes, and of these, 2 to 5 could become major hurricanes. This update includes the four seasons that have already formed up to the date.
The factors that continue to indicate that the season will be above average are neutral conditions regarding El Niño in the Pacific, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, weak winds across the Atlantic, and higher activity from the West African monsoon, which is where tropical waves originate, especially during the most active weeks of the season.
These numbers are very similar to what was initially predicted in May. The numbers only decreased by one storm in pretty much every category.
This season so far is slightly ahead of schedule by one named storm. So far, no hurricane has developed; on average, the first hurricane develops on September 1.
But don’t let this fool you. The season could ramp up quickly, and you must be prepared. This is a time to prepare. The busiest weeks are ahead of us. Remember that any policy updates usually take 30 days to come into effect.
Climate Change & hurricanes
Climate change, especially warmer ocean waters, is leading to rapid storm intensification. Everyone should keep this in mind and consider it closely, especially as a storm approaches land. If a system intensifies rapidly just before making landfall, impacts could quickly become more dangerous, leaving less time for preparations and evacuations. These hurricanes tend to bring the most devastation to coastal communities.
It is impossible to know if or how many storms could make landfall at this point. To understand this, there needs to be a system, either close to land or developed with a well-defined center of circulation.
Get ready for the season regardless of the seasonal forecast: It only takes one storm to make it a busy season!
There are plenty of actions you can take now to prepare for the season ahead.
- Have a plan
- Know if you live in an evacuation zone
- Gather important documents
- Revise your insurance policy beforehand to ensure you are covered and up-to-date with the latest changes.
For more information about ways you can prepare for the season, go to Floridadisaster.gov