The National Hurricane Center has labeled an area over northern Florida, which extends through the northwestern Gulf, with a 20% chance of tropical development through the next seven days.
There is a chance for a tropical system to form near Florida late next week, regardless of future formation (or not), periods of heavy rains and flood risk increase for the Peninsula this week. Flash floods are possible for Central and South Florida on Monday. pic.twitter.com/onF1QxPa8u
— Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) (@FloridaStorms) July 13, 2025
In the short term, there’s no chance for development; in fact, there’s no system there as of Saturday evening. As the week progresses, we’re going to be monitoring a weak low-pressure system that will develop over the southeastern United States. This disturbance should move off the coast of the Carolinas between Monday and Tuesday. As the Bermuda High strengthens and moves west, this low-pressure system will be pushed west, likely over Florida.
Once over the Gulf, the low-pressure system should begin to acquire a cluster of thunderstorms and perhaps a counterclockwise rotation. If a tropical storm forms, it will likely develop slowly, and we will continue to provide updates throughout the workweek. Please stay tuned for the release of our forecasts throughout the week.
Before this system develops, if it does, there will be plenty of moisture available in the atmosphere, which, combined with the heat, will allow for heavy rainfall to fall and impact much of the state, especially the southern half of Florida. Sunday will be a transitional day with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon, and a 1 out of 4 risk for flash flood, especially along the East Coast between Miami and Jacksonville. Monday seems to be the most active day, especially for South Florida, but keep in mind that the flash flood risk goes up one level (level 2 of 4) and takes over Central and South Florida. Models continue to show that Tuesday will be a soggy and stormy day, mainly across South Florida, with Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Lee, Hendry, and Collier counties still under a slight risk of flash floods.
Rainfall will range between 2 and 4 inches across South Florida and 1 to 3 inches in Central Florida. But there could be isolated amounts above 6 inches through Tuesday morning.
The area that will likely receive the highest rainfall through the middle of next week also has a worsening drought. Southeast Florida worsened its drought from moderate to severe, and Southwest Florida went from abnormal drought to moderate. When heavy rains fall over drought-stricken areas, flooding is more likely to happen as the ground is so compacted that it doesn´t allow for proper drainage. This makes the situation more worrisome.
Make sure to keep your weather alerts on in your phone and mobile devices. Stay informed and avoid flood-prone areas or areas with flooded waters. Water could be deeper than expected.