The National Hurricane Center has officially labeled the disturbance as Tropical Depression Three. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Chantal on Saturday morning as it moves north at 2 miles per hour, it can gain a bit more strength and reach maximum sustain winds of 40 mph, barely a tropical storm before reaching the South Carolina Coast, near Charleston late on Satuday night or shortly after midnight on Sunday.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. This means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 48 hours. However, in this case, the watch should be upgraded to a warning tonight, as the system is forecast to make landfall late Saturday, and wind gusts are expected to intensify as the day progresses. If you are on the coast, ensure you complete your preparations by Saturday morning. Gusts could exceed 45 mph at times.
This system will not last long over water, which will hinder its ability to intensify. Regardless of whether it develops into a tropical storm or a tropical depression, this system is expected to move inland over the southeastern United States on Saturday evening. Once the system moves overland, it will lose its tropical characteristics. While the system loses its tropical characteristics, it will continue to bring substantial tropical moisture to the southeastern United States. The biggest threats with this system will be heavy rain across the southeast, including southeast Georgia and the Carolinas.
There will still be plenty of moisture pulling over parts of Florida on Saturday, which will bring heavy rains and thunderstorms. The threat of the heaviest rains will be concentrated across the central portion of the peninsula, where flash floods may develop. Although rainfall could reach up to 4 inches, especially between Fort Myers and the Tampa Bay Area, parts of inland Central Florida, such as Orlando, Ocala, and Daytona Beach, could also experience some flooding. There has been a significant amount of rain accumulating over the last few days so that floods could develop easily.
The good news is that, although there will still be some rain and scattered storms on Sunday, we are expected to be on a drying trend. There will be more pockets of drier air moving through embedded within the pockets of moisture. There will be some showers moving across South and Central Florida on Sunday and Monday morning. Still, the afternoons will remain with lower-than-average storm activity, giving us a break from the heavy precipitation.
While Florida has experienced increased rain & storm activity over the past few days, stormy weather will persist in North & Central Florida.
— Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) (@FloridaStorms) July 4, 2025
The disturbance we've been monitoring is moving away from Florida, as it could develop into a depression or storm by Saturday. (Chantal) pic.twitter.com/e1YFGk1wZB
North Florida will still be under a layer of tropical moisture, we could say it could be (future Chantal´s) rain band, which could bring afternoon showers and storms. The Panhandle will remain the area with the most dry air in place, plenty of sunshine, and rain chances are likely to return on Thursday morning.