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Florida's wildfire season & weather: what's at play?

https://www.flickr.com/photos/usfwssoutheast/5142785230; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
Josh O'Connor - USFWS
https://www.flickr.com/photos/usfwssoutheast/5142785230; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

There is another season that Florida has, and this is a season that runs year-round with a peak between late spring and early summer: wildfire season. Wildfires are a big topic in Florida, with recent years being reasonably quiet compared to the 2007 wildfire season, which registered the biggest Florida/Georgia wildfire, running for 3 months, between April and June, burning over 120,000 acres just in Florida, but in total between both states over 500,000 acres, leaving millions of dollars in damages. In May 2008, the Mother's Day Palm Bay wildfire burned down several homes and left 34 million dollars in damages, mobilizing the state's resources to aid with the containment of the fire.

Current wildfires and smoke as of January 30, 2025.

The biggest wildfire in Florida's history occurred in 1998. Over 500,000 acres burned, and 47 states sent aid to help fight the fires. The 1998 Daytona 400 had to be postponed. The fire, known as the Florida Firestorm, scorched over 300 homes and caused over $300 million in timber losses. After this fire, Florida initiated stricter fire prevention regulations and emergency management protocols.

Florida has the second-highest number of wildfires, and longer dry seasons and climate pattern changes signal that the peak is starting earlier. Additionally, more wetlands are being developed as neighborhoods, which puts more people at risk. Smoke and toxic gases often kill more people than the actual flames; the winds play a crucial role in this.

Large Bugaboo Fire in May 2007 and the remnants of Subtropical Storm Andrea in a satellite picture.

What causes wildfires?

Between 1992 and 2013, five out of the six fires in the U.S. were caused by humans. Once a fire starts, whether from human activity or natural causes, the weather determines its potential spread and speed of growth. Knowing if fire weather conditions are present and considering how well local areas are maintained so that fires don't propagate and threaten structures or humans is crucial.

Florida has prescribed burns, which help prevent dangerous wildfires from occurring and spreading across Central Florida. Weather conditions are monitored carefully to minimize the impacts of smoke on traffic and residents. On average, the Florida Forest Service authorities prescribed burns of over 2 million acres annually to maintain the land and prevent future wildfires.

Drought Monitor
Drought monitor issued on January 30, 2025

How does weather affect wildfires?

Lightning can start fires, especially if it strikes over dry vegetation. Once a fire is ignited, either by lightning or humans — on purpose or not— weather conditions can spread such fires. Drought, vegetation, humidity, temperatures, and winds are the key components that can spread a fire.

Florida's dry season runs between October and May, with slight variations between regions. At least 6 months of 'dryness' really put a significant strain on the springtime as we exit the dry season on the vegetation and ground moisture. It is precisely between the late spring and the early summer when the peak of wildfire season occurs. A drought could be the worst toward the end of the season, serving lots of fuel for fires to rage. With all the dry vegetation available for fires to intake and low humidity, it is still readily available many times during the spring as fronts pull lots of dry air from the north, which helps the atmosphere stay with minimum available moisture, allowing the fires to grow. Then there are the winds. Windy conditions after a cold front sweeps through allow the fires to spread quickly. These are the two main reasons you might hear about "red flag warnings" across different parts of the state. These warnings alert residents about dangerous fire weather conditions, specifically when humidity is low and strong winds are in full force. Warm temperatures could also be at play with low humidity and gusty winds. Warmth brings more evaporation and, under the correct setup, can also give more power to wildfires.

NWS TAMPA
Example of a red flag warning issued by the Tampa NWS office.

A red flag warning is issued based on the most hazardous weather associated with the largest 10 percent of fires.

The following weather conditions will prompt the issuance of a red flag warning:

  • In North Florida (National Weather Service offices Mobile, Tallahassee, Jacksonville): Relative humidity below 28 percent AND wind speed greater than 15 mph AND Energy Release Component (Fuel Model G) of 26 or higher.
  • In Peninsular Florida (National Weather Service offices Tampa Bay Area, Melbourne, Miami, Key West): Relative humidity below 35 percent AND wind speed greater than 15 mph AND Energy Release Component (Fuel Model G) of 27 or higher.
NWS / NOAA
Fire weather safety.

Residents must do their part to prevent wildfires. Many areas in Florida remain, especially in Central and North Florida, where local authorities issue burn bans as many residents still practice burning their trash and other belongings, such as old documents.
Please be aware of any burn bans in your area, along with the local weather conditions that could aid the propagation of fires.

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