Two Democrats flipped legislative seats from red to blue in Tuesday's special election.
Emily Gregory won the Florida House District that a Republican won by 19 points just two years ago. Her district includes President Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago. And Brian Nathan flipped a Tampa state Senate seat, though a potential recount is possible.
Both have to run again in November.
WUSF's Douglas Soule talked with Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political science professor, about what the results might mean for the 2026 midterm election in November.
Florida Republicans have dominated in recent years. Some in politics have even said the Florida Democratic Party is dead.
So, professor, how notable are these special election results?
I think it's pretty important for Florida Democrats, because they have been on a long losing streak now for some years, but this shows that the Democratic Party is still alive and kicking in Florida.
This is part of a big trend that seems to be happening across the country and in Florida, and so the bottom line is it gives Florida Democrats a reason for some optimism -- for the first time in a while, as they're going into this election.
So do you think Florida Democrats have momentum?
I do think that Democrats have some momentum again. I think for Florida Democrats, they'll look at these two special elections and say, "Look how much better we did, and we actually won these two races."
Symbolically, to actually beat the Republican candidate who was endorsed by Donald Trump, [in the district] that actually contains Mar-a-Lago, which is like the winter White House or the southern White House, however you want to describe it, that's gotta feel extra good to a lot of Democrats.
Do you see any indication here of a broader national trend?
Most definitely, and it's not that Florida's causing the broader national trend. I think Florida is part of the broader national trend. We're at a stage in the election cycle where the president's party almost always loses seats. And unpopular presidents lose even more, usually.
And so that is what we have seen ever since President Trump got into office. He won re-election. But then, if you look at his approval ratings, they have generally been declining among almost all polls. And so, because President Trump is so unpopular and doing these things that the average American now doesn't like, you're seeing a backlash.
Now, the Republican Party of Florida says special elections aren't indicative of the general election. The party points to Tom Keen. Who is Tom Keen, and why is he important?
Political scientists on average will agree that any particular special election is not necessarily a great predictor for how the next election will go in that particular district or just overall. And that's because when you have a special election, turnout is abnormally low.
And with Tom Keen, yeah, he won a special election here in Central Florida. They went and knocked on a bunch of doors, and he was a Democrat, of course, and he took a Republican seat. But then the very next election cycle, he got beat. Republicans took the seat back.
Having said that, I think from a political analyst perspective and certainly from the Democratic perspective, it's more than just these two special election victories. It is the fact that these special election victories have occurred, one with big swings, and two, that many other special elections around the country have been very good for Democrats.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has called a special session to potentially change Florida's congressional map. Do you think the special elections will make Republicans rethink redistricting?
I think they're still going to look into it. They still might even do it, but I will bet that it will not be quite as aggressive as it would have been.
I have seen some people say, "Oh yeah, Republicans could pick up five more if they're very aggressive, leaving just three Democratic seats." But in order to do that, you have to create some Republican leaning seats that aren't that much Republican. Okay, yeah, maybe they lean three or four points Republican or something like that, but they're not safe. It's possible you end up with, instead of a gerrymander, what we might call a dummymander. You've tried to help yourself, but instead, you've ended up hurting your own party and you lose seats.
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This story was produced by WUSF as part of a statewide journalism initiative funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
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