The Senate's congressional remapping plan is more favorable to Democrats than the House proposal
A Florida Senate subcommittee has recommended two nearly identical U.S. House district maps for further consideration as the legislature's remapping efforts officially get underway this week.
Both would give Republicans a 16-12 seat advantage while adding a congressional district, based on the results from the 2020 presidential elections.
Right now, the GOP holds 16 congressional seats and Democrats occupy 11.
Once the Senate finalizes its plan for the state’s congressional districts, it will have to hammer out its differences with the House plan.
Long-time Florida redistricting data analyst Matthew Isbell says the House map would give Republicans at least a 17-18 seat advantage.
“Right now, the Senate has a plan that is very fair partisan-wise for Congress. Now the House has a plan that’s pretty gerrymandered. So the question becomes: Which of those two sides win[s] out?”
Isbell says, unlike the Senate’s plan, the House plan wouldn't give Democrats an extra seat in the Tampa area. And one of the state House’s maps would enlarge Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s Orlando-area district, turning it from Democratic to Republican.
Under the Senate’s plan, the Tampa-area’s House District 15 would become Democratic-leaning—with the state’s 28th congressional seat covering Republican-leaning Polk County and southern Lake County.