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Economist: Odds Of A Recession In Florida Are Increasing

Inside of a mall with very few shoppers.
Marcin Kempa/Unsplash

Analysts say chances are increasing that Florida will enter a recession soon.

“Currently, Florida’s probability of being in a recession in the next 9 months is 34.2%,” says Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Jerry Parrish.

The number is from The Florida Scorecard, the chamber foundation’s online tool that identifies and tracks key metrics important to Florida’s economy.

“It doesn’t mean we’re destined to have a recession, but the reduction in business investment that’s happening along with the global slowdown do increase the odds of it happening,” Parrish says. He updates Florida’s chances of recession each month.

The August number is way up from the April probability of 20.8%. Parrish points to a recent yield curve inversion, a key signal of a looming recession. That’s when long term interest rates are lower than short term rates.

A line shows a steady increase in the likelihood of a recession in Florida. The line starts in January of 2018 and ends in August of 2019. The current likelihood is 34.2%.
Credit Florida Chamber Foundation
The Florida Chamber Foundation tracks monthly metrics that predict the odds of a recession.

His analysis considers job growth around the state. He says hurricane-damaged areas that are still struggling may not have time to dig out before the economy takes a dive.

“Bay and Gulf counties both have losses of 3.1 percent of their jobs over the past year and have not recovered from Hurricane Michael,” Parrish says.

It’s not all bad news for the state. Parrish says the jobless rate continues to drop, Florida is gaining 900 residents a day, and the population has climbed to 21.6 million.