Despite stalled talks with Iran and a fragile ceasefire nearing its end, President Trump expressed optimism this week that a permanent deal is within reach — one that may include Iran relinquishing its enriched uranium. However, experts who spent months negotiating a nuclear agreement during the Obama administration say mutual mistrust, starkly different negotiating styles make a quick truce unlikely.
Referring to Vice President Vance's whirlwind negotiations in Islamabad last week that appear to have produced little beyond dashed expectations, Wendy Sherman, the lead U.S. negotiator on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal finalized in 2015, says the administration's approach was all wrong.
"You cannot do a negotiation with Iran in one day," she told NPR's Here & Now earlier this week. "You can't even do it in a week." To get agreement on the JCPOA, she said, it took "a good 18 months."
The talks leading to that deal highlighted Iran's meticulous style of negotiation, says Rob Malley, who was also part of the JCPOA negotiating team and later served as a special envoy to Iran under President Joe Biden.
Summing up the two sides' differing styles, Malley said: "Trump is impulsive and temperamental; Iran's leadership [is] stubborn and tenacious."
In 2015, patience led to a deal
The talks in 2015, led by Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, culminated with a marathon 19-day session in Vienna to finish the deal, says Jon Finer, a former U.S. deputy national security adviser in the Biden administration. Finer was involved in the negotiations as Kerry's chief of staff. He said his boss's patience "was a huge asset" in getting the deal to the finish line, he said.
"He would endure lectures … 'let me tell you about 5,000 years of Iranian civilization'… and just keep plowing ahead," Finer said, adding that a tactic of Iranian negotiators seemed to be "to say no to everything and see what actually matters" to the U.S.
"They're just maddeningly difficult," he said. "You need to go back at the same issue 10 or 12 times over weeks or months to make any progress."
Even so, Finer called the Iranian negotiators "extremely capable" — noting that, unlike the U.S., they often lacked expert advisers "just outside the room," yet still mastered the details of nuclear weapons, nuclear materials and U.S. sanctions.
"They were also negotiating not in their first language," Finer added. "The documents were all negotiated in English, and they were hundreds of pages long with detailed annexes."
Vance's trip to Islamabad suggests that the U.S. doesn't have the patience for a negotiation to end the conflict that could be at least as complex and time-consuming. "The Trump administration came in with maximalist demands and actually just wanted Iran to capitulate," Sherman, who served as deputy secretary of state during the Biden administration, told Here & Now. "No nation – even one as odious as the Iran regime – is going to capitulate."
Distrust but verify
Iran was attacked twice in the past year. First in June of last year, as nuclear negotiations were ongoing, Israel and the U.S. struck the country's nuclear facilities. Months later, at the end of February, Iran was attacked again at the start of the latest conflict. This time around, "the level of trust is probably almost at an all-time low," Malley said.
"It's hard for them to take at their word what they're hearing from U.S. officials," Malley said. The Iranians, he said, have to be wondering how long any commitment will last and "will be very hesitant to give up something that's tangible" – such as their enriched uranium – in exchange for anything that isn't ironclad or subject to suddenly be discarded by Trump or some future president.
"Once they give up their stockpile … they can't recapture it the next day," Malley said.
Even during the 2013-2015 nuclear deal talks, the decades of mistrust between Tehran and Washington were impossible to ignore, Finer said. "Our theory was not trust but verify — it was distrust but verify," he said, adding: "I think that was their theory too."
Malley cautions about relying on the JCPOA as a guide to how peace talks to end the current war might go. The leadership in Tehran that agreed to the deal is now gone — killed in Israeli airstrikes, he says. The regime's military capabilities are also greatly diminished and "whatever lessons were learned in the past … have to be viewed with a lot of caution, because so much has changed," he said.
Negotiations have a leveling effect
Mark Freeman, executive director of the Institute for Integrated Transitions, a peace and security think tank based in Spain that advises on conflict negotiations, says several factors shape the U.S.-Iran relationship. Going into talks, one side always has the upper hand, he says, but negotiations have a leveling effect. "The weaker party gains just by virtue of entering into a negotiation process," he said.
Each side is looking for leverage, he adds.
In Iran's case, it has used its closure of the Strait of Hormuz to exert such leverage, while the White House has shown an eagerness to resolve the conflict quickly. "If one side perceives the other needs an agreement more … that shapes the entire negotiation," he said.
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