Families in the U.S. and around the world are having fewer children as people make profoundly different decisions about their lives. NPR's series Population Shift: How Smaller Families Are Changing the World explores the causes and implications of this trend.
YIMIANPO, China — Small town life suits Lin Xin.
Her yard in the town of Yimianpo, in northeastern China, is one big, sun-soaked garden where the family grows cabbages, carrots, peanuts, and a cornucopia of other fruits and vegetables. Kittens ambush one another from behind shrubs.
"This place is well-suited to retirees," she said. "Living in the countryside is truly nice, and comfortable."
The thing is, Lin is not a retiree. At 48, she's not even old.
She and her husband moved to Beijing 20 years ago to chase their dreams and try to cash in on China's booming economy. But the plan was cut short; they moved back to Yimianpo a few years ago to take care of their aging and ailing parents. Meanwhile, Lin's only daughter is in college in the capital, with no plans to return — and ambivalent about having kids herself.
Lin Xin's story highlights the fast-unfolding demographic shifts happening in China, where the population is shrinking and aging. The United Nations has projected that between 2024 and 2054, the country could see a decline of over 200 million people. Economists say China is getting old before it gets rich, posing a massive challenge for the country's leadership.
"There are just no young people here"
Yimianpo was once a thriving rail outpost along a train line built by the Russian Empire starting in the late 1800s. Later, heavy industry, owned by the state, anchored this part of China. But state-enterprise reform — in which China shut down weak state-run companies and allowed market forces to play a larger role in the economy — took a toll.
The town now feels sleepy, surrounded by corn and rice fields. Small workshops where Russian stacking dolls are made are sprinkled throughout town. Lin says the best work that she and her husband could find was driving two of the town's six taxicabs.
"Earnings here are generally low compared to big cities, where there are more opportunities, passenger traffic and people," she said.
Official statistics show the population in Yimianpo contracted by about a third between 2010 and 2020 — from roughly 34,000 people to just over 23,000. In the same period, the number of children 14 or under dropped by half, while the number of people aged 65 and up increased by over 70%.
That's partly because of an exodus of people — like Lin — hunting greener pastures as market reforms boosted the country's east and south, and killed off local state-owned enterprises.
The departure of working-age people, in turn, fueled a sharp decline in the birthrate. On a recent one-day visit to Yimianpo, NPR saw almost no children. One elementary school has been repurposed as a storage yard; Lin says another has been turned into a parking lot. A movie theater is abandoned.
"It's not that people here won't have babies," said Lin. "There are just no young people here."
In 2023, official data for Heilongjiang, the province where Yimianpo is located, recorded fewer than three births per 1,000 residents — China's lowest rate.
But the problem is not confined to the rustbelt. China's national population has shrunk now for three straight years, dropping by some 4.3 million, according to official statistics.
Lin has two siblings, but only one child of her own, even though she was legally allowed to have two due to a loophole in China's now-dismantled "One Child" policy that allowed rural-based families with firstborn girls to have another child.
But her decision had nothing to do with policy.
In Beijing, she was hustling from the get go, first helping a sister who had a mobile phone stall in an underground mall, and later running a shop of her own.
"I had thought about having a second child, but back then I didn't have the time—I was too busy," Lin said.
Then her parents got ill, exposing the other end of China's demographic crunch: a huge bulge in the number of people 65 and up. Some experts expect the population in that age bracket to double between 2020 and 2025 to around 366 million.
China's lack of a robust social safety net made the decision for her.
"I had no choice but to come back, because the family couldn't manage without someone here," Lin said.
China's young people are delaying childbirth and prioritizing their own well-being
Lin Xin's daughter Lu Lin, 20, is a third-year student at the Beijing Contemporary Music Academy, studying musical theater.
She says school is not a huge challenge at the moment. So she does some modeling, plays cards — even qualifying as a referee for a popular card game — and has recently been dabbling in finance. She trades futures and gold online; a friend showed her how.
Asked if she wants kids someday, the answer is a qualified: maybe.
"If I were to answer now, I would prioritize personal freedom," she said.
For it to work, she says she would want to wait until she's around 30 years old and have at least 5 million yuan — about $700,000 — in the bank. For context, that's a lot in China. It would take decades for most people here to sock that much away.
For now, her focus is on herself.
"I've never even seen the world; how can I tell my children how to live or teach them in the future?" she said.
For years, the Chinese government has been trying various tactics to try to boost the birthrate, including cash handouts of 3,600 yuan ($507) for each child until the child turns three. Some local governments may pay more or provide housing subsidies. Starting this fall, China is also waiving tuition fees for children in their last year of kindergarten.
Lu Lin says government subsidies might help tip the balance for her at some point — if the money's good enough. But that decision is a long way off.
She reflects a quiet revolution in people's attitudes in China, with young people delaying marriage and childbirth while prioritizing their own well-being. In Heilongjiang Province, the average age for marriage in 2020 hit 31.48, according to data published in 2023. The nationwide average was 23.59 in 1980 and 28.67 in 2020.
Traditions like si shi tong tang, or multiple generations under one roof, are being rewritten. In Yimianpo, Lu Lin's family has lived on the same plot for five generations. Lu said she likes it there just fine, but she does not see herself ever returning to live there.
"The development of Yimianpo is a bit too slow. I can't really have the kind of life I want there," she said.
Her mother seems fine with that decision. But it does raise a key question.
"When we chat now — those of us born in the '70s — the topic often comes up: what will we do when we're older?" Lin said. "There's only one child in the family, and we don't expect them to support us in old age."
The solution she's come up with, for now, is that she and her friends and siblings will all live nearby and take care of one another.
"The idea," she said, "is to stick together and retire as a group."
Jasmine Ling contributed research to this story from Yimianpo and Beijing.
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