TEL AVIV, Israel — Something unusual is happening in U.S. diplomacy: the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration are working together toward the common goal of a breakthrough in the Middle East before President Biden leaves office.
The aim is to have a signed deal or a "declaration of principles" by Israel and Hamas — a commitment locking the sides into a pathway toward a ceasefire deal — by President Trump's inauguration day, Jan. 20, according to an official with knowledge of the talks, who was not authorized to speak publicly.
Here's what to know about the latest ceasefire effort.
What officials are saying
President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call on Sunday that there is an "immediate" need for a deal.
President-elect Trump has repeatedly warned that if the hostages captured from Israel by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7, 2023, and held in Gaza aren't released by his inauguration, there would be "hell to pay."
Biden's outgoing ambassador to Israel, Jacob J. Lew, told NPR on Friday that the unpredictability of Trump, and concerns about what his administration would do if a deal is not reached, are driving the momentum.
"I think there's a certain fear of the unknown, in terms of what the new administration will do and will say," Lew said. "There's no daylight between the incoming administration and the outgoing administration in terms of wanting a hostage deal now and pressing all parties to make the concessions that are appropriate to reach that."
What a deal would look like
The basic framework of the deal, according to officials familiar with the talks, is an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a six-week ceasefire. During that time, there would be some Israeli troop withdrawals from Gaza, and more negotiations to try to reach more hostage-prisoner swaps and a final end to the war.
Hamas is expected to release a group of 33 Israeli hostages, living and dead, including women, older men and hostages with illnesses. Israel had requested their release.
Qaddura Fares, who heads the main advocacy group in the Israeli-occupied West Bank for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, and who is in Qatar on the sidelines of the talks, told NPR that Israel is discussing the release of three groups of prisoners.
Those prisoners, he said, are: 1,000 detainees including minors, older men and those with illnesses; 48 Palestinians who were initially released in a 2011 Hamas-Israel hostage-prisoner exchange and later rearrested by Israel; and 22 Palestinians serving life sentences, convicted in connection with deadly attacks on Israelis, who are expected to be exiled to Turkey, Qatar or Egypt.
These are just a fraction of the hostages and prisoners that Hamas and Israel hold. Hamas is holding nearly 100 hostages in Gaza, including bodies of Israelis, some of whom hold dual U.S.-Israeli citizenship. Israel is holding more than 10,000 Palestinian prisoners.
How likely the deal is to succeed
Mediators are applying a lot of pressure on all parties.
Qatar and Egypt, the main Arab mediators who are speaking with Hamas, are pressuring the group to reach a deal.
A Hamas official, who was not authorized to speak to the media, told NPR that Hamas is seeking to demonstrate flexibility by proposing several possible options to resolve each point of contention.
One main complicating factor is Israel's domestic politics. A key Netanyahu ally in the Israeli Cabinet, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is publicly opposing the deal as a "catastrophe," arguing against releasing "arch-terrorists" and saying Israel should instead "occupy and cleanse" the entire Gaza Strip.
Yet Israel has its own reasons to cooperate with Trump on expediting a deal: it wants his help pursuing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and his support for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear program.
There are other signs that the negotiations are serious.
Israel's top security chiefs traveled to Qatar this weekend, and the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross — the group that facilitated the last hostage-prisoner exchange in November 2023, a month into the war — is visiting Israel and Gaza, meeting officials in anticipation of a new deal.
Abu Bakr Bashir contributed to this report.
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