SEOUL, South Korea – This week saw North Korea and Russia sign a major treaty, as their forces joined in battle against Ukrainian troops.
The developments are seen by analysts and government officials as widening the [Russo-Ukrainian] war, strengthening the link between conflicts on two continents, and setting a possible precedent for deeper North Korean involvement in this and other conflicts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed the treaty in June in Pyongyang. They ratified it into law within two days of each other [Nov. 9 and 11].
The Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership says that if either country is invaded, the other one must provide military and other assistance.
Initially, "it was Russia that actually invaded Ukraine. So there wasn't enough of an excuse for North Korea to be involved," says Choi Yonghwan, a senior researcher with the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), a think tank affiliated with South Korea's intelligence agency.
"But then Ukraine invaded Kursk, and that's when North Korean and Russian parliaments started to move together," he says, to ratify the treaty.
North Korean troops join Russian counteroffensive
The U.S., Ukraine and South Korea say that some 10,000 North Korean troops are already in Russia, mostly in the Kursk region, helping Russia to drive out Ukrainian troops who occupied territory in Kursk in August.
The North Korean troops include special forces units, and are believed to be young, inexperienced and lightly armed, or as Ukraine puts it, cannon fodder.
The North Koreans are targets not only of Ukrainian bullets, but also propaganda from North Koreans who defected to the South, including some who served in the North's military.
They've sent the troops a poem, about a North Korean mother, whose son has been sent to fight Russia. She begs him to desert.
"You are now at a crossroads between true freedom and death. Do not hesitate on the path to true freedom out of guilt or a sense of duty toward your parents in your hometown," the mother pleads in an anguished voice.
"If my son can enjoy the freedom that I could not have, or protect for you, your mom will shed tears of happiness," she says.
The defectors delivered the propaganda, along with information about South Korean welfare benefits available to defectors, to the Ukrainian Embassy in Seoul, to be relayed to North Korean troops.
North Korean deployment marks major foreign policy shift
In 2019, Kim Jong Un tried to cut a deal with then-President Donald Trump. At a summit in Vietnam, he offered to scrap part of his nuclear program in exchange for security guarantees and the lifting of some sanctions.
But the talks collapsed, and since then, North Korea has decided to try to get what it needs from Russia and China, not the U.S. Kim Jong Un has named Russia as his country's top foreign policy priority.
Park Hyeong-jung, an emeritus researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, believes that Moscow and Pyongyang probably signed a deal, by which North Korea sent munitions and laborers to Russia, prior to the troop deployment.
He believes Russia's compensation has gone to upgrade North Korean weapons and consumer goods factories, which Kim Jong Un has instructed to ramp up production.
But he says Russia may have difficulty paying in the future.
"As Russia's economy deteriorates and its foreign exchange situation gets worse, I think Russia will try to compensate North Korea with military technology, rather than cash."
North Korea revives Cold War rhetoric
To explain his country's shift in policy, Kim Jong Un has described the Korean Peninsula as the front line in a new Cold War, and Pyongyang as a key player in a revived Cold War axis that includes Moscow and Beijing.
In a September 2023 speech, Kim Jong Un argued that "the structure of the 'new Cold War' is being materialized on a global scale and the existence of sovereign states and the right to existence of their people are seriously threatened by the reactionary imperialist forces," requiring North Korea to develop nuclear weapons to defend itself.
Linked to this effort is Kim's redefinition of South Korea not as part of a divided Korean nation, destined to eventually be reunified, but as an implacable foe. The North has blown up roads and a liaison office to sever all ties with South, and amended its constitution to label the South a hostile state.
The problem with this narrative is that North Korea's traditional main ally China does not want to be lumped into this retro trio, and frequently admonishes the U.S. to abandon its Cold War mentality and alliances intended to contain Beijing.
On the other hand, North Korea has a record of sending troops to aid its communist brethren, including the dispatch of fighter pilots to help North Vietnam during the Vietnam War.
North Korea's Russia deployment could also pave the way for a North Korean role in potential future conflicts. "If there's a contingency in the Taiwan Strait, North Korea has implied that, by taking action in the Ukraine war, it could also be really helpful to the Chinese cause," argues Choo Jaewoo, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Kyung Hee University outside Seoul.
China sees Taiwan as part of its territory, and has not ruled out taking it by force. North Korea and China still have a mutual defense treaty dating back to 1961.
Factoring in a new U.S. administration
For now, a more pressing concern is the incoming second administration of Donald Trump, who claimed in July that he could settle the Ukraine conflict in one day.
INSS researcher Choi Yonghwan says North Korea must have factored that into their timing.
"When the war is over, North Korea's value to Russia will be completely different from when the war is still going on, so I think that's why North Korea decided to send troops quickly," in advance of the U.S. elections, he argues.
Trump has also suggested he could solve the North Korean nuclear issue. But North Korea appears to have given up on talks with the U.S., and some experts believe it has invested too much in ties with Russia to turn back.
NPR's Se Eun Gong contributed to this report in Seoul.
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