Clinton Leads Rubio, Bush In Hypothetical Head-To-Head Election

Jun 17, 2015

The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania to see who would win in a number of hypothetical presidential elections.
Credit Nick Evans

The field of presidential nominees is taking shape, and in Florida, early polling suggests Hillary Clinton has an edge against Republican challengers.  But even if Clinton gets the nomination, experts caution her lead is slight.

The Quinnipiac University poll released data Wednesday from its most recent survey.  Peter Brown is the polling center’s assistant director.

“The latest poll of Florida registered voters finds that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds narrow leads over former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio—two favorite sons of the Sunshine State,” Brown says.

Clinton performs even better against out-of-state Republicans.  Brown says part of Clinton’s success comes from her performance among women, where she leads Rubio and Bush by double digits. 

But in two other swing states—Ohio and Pennsylvania—Clinton doesn’t fare quite as well.  Ohio’s current Gov. John Kasich is flirting with a presidential run and he leads Clinton by seven points in his state.  In Pennsylvania, Rubio and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul both hold one point leads over the former Secretary of State. 

But Brown cautions there’s still long way to go before primary season, and it’s too soon to draw conclusions from Clinton’s performance.

“It says that she has a small lead—a very small lead.  And we have seventeen months to go to the election.”

Clinton leads Rubio is 47 to 44 percent—falling within the poll’s three point margin of error.  Against Bush she leads by four, with 46 percent to his 42.  But it’s worth noting while the poll comes out in the wake of Bush’s official announcement, the survey work was done beforehand.  It’s unclear what impact if any that will have on voters’ choices.