A new poll of likely voters in Congressional District 5 shows Congresswoman Corrine Brown has a slight edge in a very close race.
A poll conducted by University of North Florida researchers shows a race that hinges on voter turnout and geography. Democratic Congresswoman Corrine Brown has a slight lead with 30%, ahead of former State Senator Al Lawson’s 27%, within the 4.9% margin of error. Healthcare non-profit executive LaShonda Holloway has 4%, while a full 40% of voters remain undecided. The August 30th primary marks the first election in the newly redrawn district, which now runs from downtown Tallahassee to Jacksonville.
“And there’s many residents that are really a little confused about what district they’re in. Several people we talked to on the phone, and these are likely voters, these are people who show up during primaries, they were convinced they were in CD 2,” he said.
Michael Binder spearheaded the poll, and he believes turnout will decide the race. 55% of the district’s voters are in Duval County, which favors Brown. But turnout is historically higher in the rest of the district, where Lawson is more popular.
“It’s Duval versus, in a lot of ways. It’s Duval versus everybody else. And everybody else seems to be leaning towards Lawson,” he said.
Binder argues an undecided electorate favors challengers like Lawson. And he adds, the incumbent Brown is still grappling with an ongoing ethics investigation.